Green Notebook from Dreamland

The leaders of the two countries initialled a memorandum of understanding that aims for a peace treaty, although there is still discontent about the so-called Zangezur Corridor, which Trumps wants to be called The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

Still, the President is not the only one who gets confused when it comes to Azerbaijan.

I am happy to admit that before I went there I had no clue where it was and on the global Need-to-Know Index (there isn’t one…) Azerbaijan is right up there with South Ossetia. The one thing Azerbaijan has that makes it interesting on a global scale is oil.

In fact, it was one of the birthplaces of the oil industry. I won’t go through all the goings-on suffice to say that Russia and Persia both had periods when they were in control but after the Fourth Russo-Persian War (1804–1813) it became Russian territory and the oil wells were declared Russian state assets. Oil was shipped from Baku up the Caspian Sea to the River Volga and  from there by boat to Saint Petersburg, by way of a canal system. To put things into perspective, in 1901 half the world’s oil was produced in Baku. The Russians sold concessions to individuals and over time the folk of Baku became wealthy and built not only grand palaces to live in, but also impressive public buildings and extensive gardens and parks.  It was a wealthy cosmopolitan place, also famous for the highest quality caviar. To cut a very long story short, the people of Azerbaijan wanted to rule themselves and so when Imperial Russia collapsed in 1917, the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was proclaimed. This did not last long. In April 1920 Lenin ordered the Red Army to invade and the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic was established. This would last for 71 years before Soviet Russia in turn collapsed.

Heydar Aliyev, a KGB man in Azerbaijan ran the place from 1969 onwards but after he fell out with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, he reinvented himself as a nationalist and ended up as President of the new Azerbaijan in 1993 after a military coup took out the democratic government. Since then the Aliyev family has won elections with vast percentages of the vote that have raised eyebrows even among the African nations. Heydar Aliyev died in 2003 and his son Ilham took over. Ilham’s wife Mehriban is now the vice president. It is all rather post-Soviet but the Aliyevs have spent a lot of money in the last 25 years to improve Baku and avoid being a Russian satellite. The human rights people and corruption agencies have a low opinion of it all but it should be said that Aliyev Sr started a sovereign wealth fund to use money generated by oil to develop other industries, which was a very sensible thing to do. As of September last year, the State Oil Fund or Azerbaijan has around $61.7 billion in assets (although F1 has taken a moderate slice of cash in the last nine years). This fund provides money for government projects and infrastructure and has helped to create a tourist industry, despite the setbacks in recent years of COVID, the Ukraine War and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Sitting in the Paris Brest Cafe, listening to piped accordion music, I was struck by the feeling that Amélie Poulain should be around somewhere, happily trying to create fabulous destinies for those around her. There is a sort of quaint magic about Baku, if you ignore the  spetsnaz-style goons, taxi drivers trying to rob you blind (not unusual in places we visit) and the fashion that seems to exist for cosmetic surgery pouts. Baku is a modern place, a melting pot of cultures, where a few are still stuck in the Russian mentality but others look to the West. It is place full of surprises. I have travelled the world for decades and even been to San Sebastián in the Basque country, but I discovered a basque cheesecake called San Sebastián in Baku… (and highly recommend it).

On the way to the airport I had a good taxi driver and, dodging traffic, he took me on a new route to Heydar Aliyev International Airport, which went by way of the coast and passed a neighbourhood called Dreamland, where you can live the rich man’s dream in a world of villas and golf courses.  Despite the positive aspects that the city boasts, it is not a very popular venue with Formula 1 people and it attracts fewer staff, guests, spectators and media than any other race on the F1 calendar.  It is actually really nice to be in quiet paddock for a change, but the weird thing is that because Baku is unpopular, it is becoming popular with people who want to get more access than they can get elsewhere. Flying in, I was aware that there were a lot of American voices around me and it was clear that these were F1 fans, going to Baku because it is cheaper than to try to get Paddock Club tickets in Austin and Las Vegas.

During the Baku weekend came the expected news that the race contract has been extended until after the 2030 event – or an other four years – this was interesting in that other races are signing 10 year deals, but it seems that F1 does not want to be committed in Baku for too long because other places may come along that make more sense.  The Baku City Circuit provides plenty of spectacular motoring and it has worked wonders for Azerbaijan tourism, but it does tend to jam up the city and the word is that the Azerbaijan government has been considering a permanent racing circuit instead. F1 would be happier if the facilities were better (they were quite scary when the winds kicked up) but there is zero interest in the sport moving to somewhere out in the sticks like Dreamland. The attraction of Baku to F1 is the circuit. Azerbaijan has no strategic importance for F1. It was useful at the beginning when it was seen as a way to help boost F1’s following in Russia, but since Russia invaded Ukraine, F1 slammed the door shut. F1 might prefer to shift the event to Istanbul, which is a much more logical place to be, where there is a great circuit available (although it probably needs to be tarted up by now) and where the government is believed to be supportive of reviving the event. But Baku is willing to pay more at the moment and so Istanbul and other pretenders have to wait. The United States GP in Austin will renew its deal shortly and at some point we will hear that Barcelona will probably sneak into the slot that is available alternating with the Belgian Grand Prix. Spa will get the races in 2026, 2027, 2029 and 2031 and Barcelona will get 2028 and 2030.  There are still likely to be two slots of available in 2027 and 2028 and there are a lot of people wanting to grab the deals. Saudi Arabia wants another race, Thailand and Rwanda are keen, there is potential in Korea, Portugal, Argentina and South Africa. Not to mention Turkey and Barcelona. The price is one thing, but strategic importance is also key to building a more global sport. Another race in South America, for example, is of more value than another race in Europe. A race in Africa is considered important, but not unless the deal is right. It is worth noting by the way that Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame was in Baku but did not try to be in the spotlight. He had a meeting with Stefano Domenicali but avoided the photo opportunities on the grid…  South Africa continues to talk and put out press releases but nothing seems to be happening – and no deal is close.

Argentina will be almost entirely dependent on whether Franco Colapinto can do enough to keep his drive in 2026. The Alpine team needs a lot of work and it won’t be fixed in a hurry, but if Colapinto is still there, we could go back to Buenos Aires. I did spot Formula 2 Championship leader Leonardo Fornaroli having a number of meetings with team bosses but unless he has a ton of money he is unlikely to get a chance beyond being a test driver. This may seem strange given that he was F3 Champion in 2024 and could win F2 at his first attempt,  which would normally put him into a position where teams would be fighting over him. The problem is that there are a lot of people who worry about whether the power units are properly matched in the two championships. Given that the F2 graduates this year have all been doing pretty well in F1 (except Jack Doohan who was never given a proper chance), the argument about engines might seem like sour grapes, but the suspicions are there and changing them will not be easy. F1 teams now tend to whisk their drivers through the ranks to avoid spending too much time and money in the two series.  Kimi Antonelli and Oliver Bearman are both examples of this and Luke Browning will move to F1 next year as Williams reserve. F1 says that everything is fair but it is worth noting that FIA Formula 3 just announced a €1 million prize fund, which will be paid out on this year and beyond, although that will require the drivers to be moving up to F2. This is probably because opposition to Formula 3 is growing outside the FIA structure and the championship wants to look more attractive than rivals.

We know that Colton Herta has quit IndyCar to come to be a reserve driver with Cadillac and that he is going to compete in Formula 2 to get up to speed to move to F1 and the word is that he will end up at Hitech, where there is a decent drive available. I hope that Herta can be what F1 needs most of all right now: a competitive American driver. The trouble is that you cannot manufacture  champions based on their nationalities. If one could we would have a Chinese or an African driver in F1. All one can do is to identify a talent and then nurture it in the right way and then perhaps (just perhaps) the dream will come true. Red Bull spends a huge amount of money trying to do this and has a success rate that is pretty hit-and-miss.

At the moment Red Bull has Liam Lawson, Isack Hadjar and Arvid Lindblad all hoping to be around in F1 next year. Yuki Tsunoda might still have a chance, but there will be a decision within a month (probably). The fact is that there are no guarantees. The ultimate deciding factor is performance and it is hard for anyone to match Max. Interestingly, Red Bull is doing some new things in sponsorship these days, including supporting  the 200th anniversary of Johann Strauss II in the Austrian capital Vienna. The esteemed Wiener Konzerthaus recently played host to a show called Red Bull Symphonic, with famous Strauss melodies being re-imagined by DJs with thumping disco-style drum and bass beats… Why not?

The rising popularity of F1 in America is bringing in more and more sponsorship although some teams that have accepted too many sponsors are struggling to keep them happy because things like access to the drivers is becoming a problem, as they need time off and will only do so many days of promotional stuff. The more sponsors you have the more days you need, or the less happy your sponsors are… The truck is to get fewer high-paying sponsors…

We will soon hear about a couple of big deals for F1 in the United States. It is fairly clear that Apple is going to take over the F1 TV rights for the US markets, starting next year, and it will be a much bigger deal than the current $90 million a year from ESPN. I hear that it is probably more than twice that figure when all the different elements of the deal are included, with sponsorship likely to be part of it as well as the rights fees. I hear the deal will be for five years because F1 thinks that by then the World Championship will be bigger and more valuable than ever. There will also be a renewal of the United States Grand Prix deal in Austin and there is a lot of talk about the idea of making a sequel to the super-successful F1 movie. This will not be easy because Brad Pitt, young though he looks, is 61 and while he can get away with a character 20 years younger, that is still top of the range for a modern F1 driver. Pitt’s Sonny Hayes character dominated the movie and it is doubtful that a sequel could be made without him, although perhaps he would switch to a different role, such as a team boss. One can imagine, for example, a script based on Brawn Grand Prix, which went from nowhere to becoming World Champions in just one season. It is the stuff of fairytales.

Everyone in F1 is keen to help now that the concept has been proved. The biggest problem may be getting the same director because Joseph Kosinski is booked perhaps as far ahead as 2029, with various movies including remaking Miami Vice and Top Gun 3, but this does not mean that a different filmmaker cannot be chosen.

The F1 marketing crews are getting more and more interest in the United States, which is good news for everyone. In a world driven by brands, one can get surprises from time to time. Cadillac recently signed a deal with “one of the most iconic names in American culture” the bourbon brand Jim Beam. It looked like a good fit, but when I was looking into the company I was interested to discover that it’s now owned by the Japanese food and beverage conglomerate Suntory Global Spirits.

We need to keep perspective of course and while I was looking to TV ratings I was interested to see that while F1 is doing well against NASCAR and IndyCar, the numbers are still tiny when compared to the big guns. F1’s US record for viewers is 3.1 million viewers for the Miami GP in 2024. The recent NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs drew a record 34 million viewers and the NFL scored 72 of the top 100 most-watched broadcasts in the US last year. Donald Trump’s inauguration this year drew 24.6 million.

I guess what F1 needs is to get Charles or Lando dating Ms Swift as quickly as possible (Sorry, Travis) and not worrying too much about whether Azerbaijan is fighting Cambodia or Albania…

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