F1 driver told he has ‘less than 2%’ chance of racing for Red Bull next season after Baku – journalist

Red Bull Racing have still yet to confirm who will be driving alongside Max Verstappen next season.

Heading into the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, three drivers would have been hoping to catch Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies’ attention.

Max Verstappen is launching a late challenge for the drivers’ championship, and Red Bull can rely on the Dutchman still being with the team next year.

For the first time since the 2020 Russian Grand Prix, all four Red Bull-backed drivers finished in the points on Sunday.

Yuki Tsunoda produced his best result since being promoted to Red Bull, securing eight points for Mekies’ team.

Isack Hadjar snuck into the points in 10th, while Liam Lawson secured his best result in Formula 1.

Lawson earned a new nickname from F1 fans after qualifying third for Racing Bulls and taking the chequered flag in P5.

The trio of Red Bull-backed drivers are all waiting to discover their fates heading into next year, with the F1 driver market looking bleak for whoever misses out on a race seat.

READ MORE: All you need to know about Red Bull Racing from engine to Ford links

Liam Lawson given ‘less than 2% chance’ of Red Bull return despite career-best Baku result

Journalist Josh Suttill was in attendance at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and speaking on The Race F1 Podcast, he was asked if there’s any chance of Liam Lawson returning to Red Bull next year, and replied: “I think there is probably a 2% chance of that happening, if less than that.

“And that’s no discredit to Lawson. But look at Pierre Gasly. Look at the job that Gasly did at AlphaTauri, Toro Rosso; he did a great job.

“He was performing at a very high level, but Red Bull never considered putting him back there because, unfortunately, it didn’t work out the first time.

“Gasly’s Red Bull stint was probably far better than the two races Lawson managed. It was such a disaster that I feel like that link is severed forever.

“And we even came into the weekend asking Lawson about his future, asking if he was looking outside of Red Bull, and we kind of got the hint that he probably is.

“But unfortunately, as we said before, there aren’t really many options of a seat.

“But I think what he said was that he’d always imagined the only way to win a world championship was with the Red Bull.

“Well, the only kind of dream was to get into Red Bull Racing, and now, he’s kind of realised, actually, there are dreams outside of that.

“So yeah, unfortunately, the chances of him returning are very, very slim. But, at least he is performing at a very decent level now, which could at least help him retain his seat or impress somebody else, even if there isn’t a seat available for next year.”

READ MORE: Who is Racing Bulls F1 driver Liam Lawson? Everything you need to know

How could Red Bull and Racing Bulls line up for the 2026 Formula 1 season?

With seven race weekends to go, Hadjar is the frontrunner to be Verstappen’s teammate next season.

The French rookie made a critical error during his final run in Q3 that saw him only qualify eighth when he believed he could have started ahead of Lawson.

Tsunoda’s most likely scenario is a return to Racing Bulls at this stage, although his upturn in form in Baku would have given Mekies and Helmut Marko something to think about.

Marko was privately delighted with Tsunoda after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, but may have other plans for the team’s line-up.

It means the final seat at Racing Bulls could be a shootout between Lawson and F2 star Arvid Lindblad.

Racing Bulls are said to be leaning towards releasing Lawson, and with Alpine not looking outside of their driver pool for 2026, that would leave the New Zealander without a race seat.

However, plenty can change in the next few races, particularly as Lindblad’s impressive early form in F2 has fallen away recently.