DEEP DIVE: Can McLaren get back on top? Azerbaijan GP predictions

The Formula 1 circus now turns its attention to Baku for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix — one of the most unpredictable and thrilling races on the calendar. With its unique combination of long, high-speed straights and narrow, twisting sections through the city walls, the Baku City Circuit has a reputation for producing drama. Safety cars, surprise podiums, and last-lap heartbreaks are almost guaranteed.

So what can we expect from the 2025 edition? Here are my predictions for who might take victory, how the podium could shape up, and who could emerge as the surprise stars of the weekend.

The Fight for Victory

Oscar Piastri arrives as the clear favorite. The McLaren driver has been in scintillating form this season, leading the championship with consistency and composure. McLaren’s package has proven versatile across circuit types, and with Baku’s long straights balanced by its technical middle sector, Piastri’s calm approach should help him avoid mistakes while still maximizing performance.

But the race may not be so straightforward. Lando Norris is equally capable of mastering this circuit. He’s shown throughout 2025 that he can push Piastri hard, and the intra-team battle could easily spill into Baku. McLaren will want to avoid repeating strategy headaches like those in Monza, but they’ll know both drivers are strong contenders here.

Then there’s Max Verstappen. Red Bull’s win at Monza was described by Helmut Marko as a “rebirth” for the team, and if that form carries into Azerbaijan, Verstappen could be a major threat. The Dutchman thrives on street circuits and is one of the best at managing high-pressure scenarios. If Red Bull’s upgrades deliver similar stability to what they showed in Italy, a Verstappen win is not out of the question.

Prediction for Winner: Oscar Piastri, with Verstappen pushing him hardest.

Podium Predictions

• 1st – Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
  Consistency, pace, and calm decision-making make Piastri the most likely victor.

• 2nd – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
  Buoyed by Red Bull’s Monza turnaround, Verstappen will look to prove the team is truly back.

• 3rd – Lando Norris (McLaren)
  Expect Norris to be right in the mix, but strategy or safety-car timing might just nudge him down to third.

Best of the Rest

Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari has the potential to challenge for a podium if the car’s balance works in Baku. Ferrari’s straight-line speed has been competitive, and Leclerc has often excelled at street circuits. However, Ferrari have struggled with tire wear in longer races, which could cost him late in the GP.

George Russell in the Mercedes is another name to watch. Mercedes have improved gradually, and Russell has shown flashes of brilliance this year. A clean qualifying session could put him in contention for a top-five finish.

Midfield Battles

The midfield fight is one of the most compelling storylines heading into Baku. Here’s how it could shake out:

• Williams (Carlos Sainz & Alex Albon): Both drivers have been consistently in the points. Sainz’s experience could be crucial in managing the chaos of Baku, while Albon’s adaptability might help him snag another surprise top-six finish.

• Racing Bulls (Isack Hadjar & Liam Lawson): Hadjar’s confidence is growing after his first F1 podium at Zandvoort, and Baku could be another strong opportunity. Lawson, meanwhile, faces pressure to prove he deserves his seat with Red Bull’s junior driver shuffle looming.

• Aston Martin (Fernando Alonso & Lance Stroll): Alonso will always be a threat on a street track, but Aston Martin’s lack of pace compared to earlier in the season could hold them back.

• Kick Sauber & Haas: Both teams are capable of sneaking into the lower points if the race turns chaotic with multiple safety cars — a common occurrence in Baku.

Prediction for Midfield Leader: Alex Albon, with Williams’ straight-line efficiency paying off.

Safety Cars & Strategy

One thing we know about Baku: you can never write off the unpredictable. Safety cars are common — crashes in the castle section, restarts down the long main straight, and sudden weather changes have all shaped the race in the past.

Strategy will hinge on timing. Teams will want to gamble less with aggressive two-stoppers and more with making the right call under a safety car. A well-timed pit stop can turn a top-10 into a podium here, and the midfield will be watching closely for those opportunities.

Drivers to Watch

• Isack Hadjar: His momentum after Zandvoort could carry into Baku, and he’s shown he can stay calm in chaotic conditions.

• Carlos Sainz: The Spaniard has unfinished business this season and could use his experience to outwit rivals in the midfield.

• George Russell: With Mercedes improving, Russell could spring a surprise if he nails qualifying.

Final Thoughts

The Azerbaijan GP is always a spectacle, and 2025 should be no different. Expect drama, safety cars, and at least one shock result. While McLaren remain the favorites with Piastri and Norris, Verstappen’s resurgence with Red Bull adds spice to the mix. Ferrari and Mercedes will be hoping to capitalize on mistakes, and the midfield promises its own fireworks.

Predicted Podium:

1. Oscar Piastri

2. Max Verstappen

3. Lando Norris

But as Baku has taught us before, predictions here are never safe — and that’s exactly why it’s one of the most exciting stops on the F1 calendar.