Azerbaijan GP Predictions Deep Dive

What did we get right about our Baku predictions?

The Azerbaijan Grand Prix has a reputation for unpredictability, and once again, Baku didn’t disappoint. Heading into the weekend, we laid out our predictions: Oscar Piastri to win, Verstappen to challenge, Norris for the podium, and Carlos Sainz to lead the midfield fight. Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to ask the question: how accurate were our Baku predictions?

The Fight for Victory

Prediction: Piastri Wins, Verstappen Pushes Hardest

In our preview, we put Oscar Piastri down as the favourite, with Max Verstappen pegged as his biggest challenger.

Reality: Verstappen Dominates, Piastri Falters

As it turned out, Verstappen didn’t just push Piastri — he crushed the field. Red Bull’s pace in Baku, combined with Verstappen’s precision on a street circuit, meant he secured pole, led every lap, and even set the fastest lap on his way to a grand slam victory. Far from being the scrappy chase we predicted, it was a statement of dominance.

Piastri, meanwhile, endured a nightmare weekend. A crash in qualifying left him starting further back than expected, and his race unravelled almost immediately after a botched start and early retirement. Instead of standing atop the podium, he left Baku empty-handed — a stark reminder that no one is immune from Baku’s chaos.

Verdict: Wrong. We expected Piastri to control the race, but Verstappen and Red Bull stole the show.

Podium Predictions

Prediction:

1st Piastri

2nd Verstappen

3rd Norris

Reality:

1st Verstappen

2nd Russell

3rd Sainz

Our podium forecast was a mixed bag. We correctly identified Verstappen as a frontrunner, but didn’t expect George Russell to muscle his way into second place after starting from P5. Russell, battling illness all weekend, produced one of the drives of the season. It was a gutsy performance that earned Mercedes their best result of the year so far.

The real surprise came in Carlos Sainz, who delivered Williams’ first full-race podium since 2017. We had tipped Sainz to lead the midfield, but his cool head and flawless execution pushed him much further — straight onto the podium.

Verdict: Half right. Verstappen delivered as expected, but the rest of the podium had a very different look than we anticipated.

Best of the Rest

Prediction: Leclerc and Russell to Challenge for Top Five

We argued that Ferrari’s straight-line speed and Russell’s steady improvement at Mercedes could make both drivers top-five contenders.

Reality: Russell Surpassed Expectations, Ferrari Faltered

On Russell, we were spot-on. He didn’t just make the top five — he made the podium. His ability to stretch his first stint, manage tyres, and pick off rivals in the pits showed just how far Mercedes have come.

Ferrari, however, didn’t live up to the hype. Charles Leclerc looked strong in practice and qualifying, but race pace and tyre management issues returned to haunt him. He dropped out of podium contention quickly and never truly threatened the leaders.

Verdict: Mixed. Russell delivered, but Ferrari once again failed to translate Saturday speed into Sunday results.

Midfield Battles

Prediction: Sainz to Lead, Albon for Top Six, Hadjar and Tsunoda in the Mix

We saw Williams as the likely midfield leaders, with Sainz’s experience and Albon’s adaptability providing their best chance of points. Racing Bulls, particularly rookie Isack Hadjar, were also tipped for strong runs after Zandvoort.

Reality: Sainz Outshines, Hadjar Shines, Albon Struggles

Sainz not only led the midfield but also shocked the paddock with his podium — calling it the “best podium of my career.” We certainly got that part right, even if we underestimated just how good he’d be.

Hadjar lived up to the hype with another impressive showing, keeping his head in chaotic conditions and finishing in the points again. He’s quickly proving that his Zandvoort podium was no fluke. Tsunoda, however, couldn’t match Hadjar’s composure and trailed behind.

Albon, meanwhile, endured a frustrating weekend. While Sainz thrived, Albon missed out on the top six, hampered by strategy missteps and bad timing with the safety car.

Verdict: Mostly right. Sainz did lead, Hadjar delivered, but Albon fell short.

Safety Cars & Strategy

Prediction: Expect Multiple Safety Cars and Race-Changing Strategy Calls

It’s Baku — we couldn’t imagine a clean race.

Reality: Safety Cars Galore

True to form, the Azerbaijan GP was a stop-start affair. Multiple safety car periods reshuffled the order, and timing pit stops correctly became the difference between podium glory and midfield mediocrity. Sainz, Russell, and Verstappen all benefitted from smart pit calls, while others, like Albon, saw their strategies compromised.

Verdict: Correct. Safety cars were inevitable, and strategy made or broke the race.

Drivers to Watch

• Isack Hadjar: Delivered another points finish.

• Carlos Sainz: Went beyond expectations with a podium.

• George Russell: Nailed qualifying and turned it into P2.

Our list of drivers to watch proved accurate — all three stood out in their own way.

Final Thoughts

So, how well did our Baku predictions hold up? Let’s break it down:

• Big Misses: Backing Piastri for the win and Norris for a podium. Both McLaren drivers stumbled in Baku.

• Spot On: Flagging Verstappen as a major threat, predicting Russell’s rise, identifying Sainz as midfield leader, and warning that safety cars would shape the race.

• Biggest Surprise: Sainz’s podium. Even though we called him midfield leader, few expected Williams to finally return to the rostrum.

Ultimately, Baku proved once again why it’s such a fan favourite: predictions rarely survive intact. While we hit on some key narratives — Verstappen’s strength, Russell’s grit, and Sainz’s resurgence — the race also reminded us that Formula 1 will always find a way to shock us. And that’s exactly why we keep coming back.