DEEP DIVE: Lawson vs Tsunoda who will get a seat next season?

The Azerbaijan GP didn’t just offer drama at the front. Further down the order, there was an intense duel that may well have implications for who keeps their seat next season: Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda went head-to-head in a contest that combined strategy, pressure, risk, and lots of talking points.

Lawson took his career best finish—5th place—for Racing Bulls. He qualified third (his best Q3 result ever) and held off Tsunoda in the race, even when Tsunoda was threatening with fresher tyres in the closing laps. Tsunoda finished just behind in 6th, his best result since being promoted to Red Bull Racing.

On Track: What Happened Between Them

A few moments stood out in their tussle:

• Qualifying: Lawson finished well ahead by three places (P3 vs. P6 for Tsunoda). That gave him a head start.

• Race Strategy & Tyres: In the race, Lawson made his pit stop earlier; Tsunoda stayed out longer, hoping to have fresher tyres toward the end. Eventually, Tsunoda pitted but came out behind Lawson, and though he had the grip advantage, he felt cautious about overtaking.

• The Decision Not to Go for It: Tsunoda himself said that there were a lot of “hero-stuff” moments where he could have tried something daring on Lawson—but he held back. He cited concern over allowing McLaren’s Lando Norris or others trailing in the train to overtake if he lost ground in a risky passing attempt. He said it was about managing risk for the team/championship.

Lawson, meanwhile, said he was focused on defending his position, staying tough mentally, and making sure he maximised what he had when it counted.

What They Said: Comments & Mindsets

Here are some of their reflections:

• Yuki Tsunoda: He described Baku as a turning point of sorts. After struggling, he said he “unlocked something” in his approach, especially with his long-run pace and with changes he asked for, including tweaks in the simulator work. He said, “If I had been able to rejoin two metres faster, probably I would have been able to keep Liam behind.” But balanced that with the view that he didn’t want to take too much risk and lose position to McLaren.

• Liam Lawson: He noted that while starting P3 gave him potential, he didn’t believe the car was strong enough to reach the podium from there. But fifth is his best so far, and he said he was surprised to hold off Tsunoda with Lawson being aware what’s behind him. He also acknowledged the risk that Tsunoda was on fresher tyres and could have overtaken him, but Lawson felt he did the right strategic calls and defended well. 

Seat Pressure: What’s at Stake for 2026

This battle goes beyond bragging rights: both Tsunoda and Lawson are under pressure for their futures at Red Bull and Racing Bulls. Some context:

• Red Bull has already stated they are not rushing driver decisions, but the performance gap, consistency, and mental approach are being noticed.

• Tsunoda is under scrutiny: since being promoted, he has had flashes of promise but also moments where he’s been off the pace or made errors. The Baku result is his best since early in his rookie period, and his recent work in the simulator and long-run pace seem to be steps forward. But he needs more of these weekends to solidify his seat.

• Lawson, having been demoted back to Racing Bulls earlier this season, is aiming to prove that he belongs. A strong result like fifth in Baku, plus qualifying well, helps his case. He’s under pressure to stay sharp, defend when challenged, and show driver-maturity.

Red Bull senior management will likely be watching their reliability under pressure, consistency, and racecraft—not just outright pace. The way each handled Baku suggests their mindset: Tsunoda balancing risk vs reward; Lawson being more aggressive and defensive. Both traits count.

What Could Decide the Battle Going Forward

Some factors that may tip the scale in favour of one or the other:

Qualifying vs Race Conversion: If Tsunoda continues to struggle converting strong qualifying into race results, that weakens his case. Conversely, Lawson must maintain strong qualifying to support his race chances.

Strategic Decisions & Racecraft: How they manage pressure, tyre life, and overtakes will matter. Tsunoda’s decision in Baku to avoid risky passes may show maturity but could also be seen as lacking aggression.

Team Support & Technical Adaptation: Tsunoda seems to be benefiting from recent car setup changes and simulator work. If those continue, he could close the performance gap. Lawson will need to show he can adapt similarly.

Championship Context: Since McLaren and Verstappen are fighting for titles, how Tsunoda or Lawson affect team points matters too. If one helps more in Constructors’ standings, that could influence decision-makers.

External Competition: With Isack Hadjar looking likely to take a senior Red Bull seat, there’s additional pressure. Neither Tsunoda nor Lawson are in a vacuum. Their performances will be compared not just to each other, but also to what Hadjar and potentially others bring to the table. 

Conclusion: Who Has the Edge?

After Azerbaijan, it’s hard to pick a definitive winner between Tsunoda and Lawson — both did well, each in their own way.

• Lawson has the edge in raw result: P5 is his best ever finish, and he fought hard to hold position. He demonstrated aggressive defending and good tire management.

• Tsunoda has the improvement story: better long-run pace, strategic thinking about risk, and a renewed work ethic in simulator & car setup.

If I had to lean one way, I’d say Lawson has slightly more momentum from Baku, but Tsunoda has the tools and possibly more to gain (or lose) going forward. Ultimately, Red Bull will likely sit back, evaluate across multiple races, and decide before the end of the season who deserves to be in which seat in 2026.

This duel is one of the more fascinating subplots in the 2025 season: not just about speed, but about character, mental strength, consistency—and who gets to keep the keys next year.