The first half of the 2025 Formula 1 season hasn’t just challenged preseason expectations, it has obliterated them entirely. McLaren’s dominance with their remarkable MCL39 has been as brutal as predicted, but the drama behind them paints a far richer picture of intrigue and internal chaos.
McLaren’s performance so far has been nothing short of ruthless. The MCL39 has proven dominant across every circuit type, low-downforce, high-speed, technical, you name it. Oscar Piastri’s early-season consistency set the tone, but Lando Norris has responded with a string of aggressive, late-race drives that hint at internal rivalry. The two are now separated by just nine points heading into the break, and while team management insists harmony remains, the garage tension is impossible to miss. Andrea Stella’s leadership has kept the car development on track, but it’s the intra-team dynamics that may define McLaren’s second half. With the Constructors’ Championship already looking locked, the only remaining drama is whether McLaren’s drivers can avoid tearing each other apart on the way to the title.
Lewis Hamilton’s highly anticipated move to Ferrari was intended as the crowning chapter in an already legendary career. Instead, it has swiftly devolved into a personal nightmare. Hamilton’s struggles adapting to Ferrari’s demanding SF-25 chassis became glaringly clear as the season progressed, climaxing in a demoralizing weekend at the Hungarian Grand Prix. While teammate Charles Leclerc stormed to pole position with sublime ease, Hamilton could muster only a 12th-place qualifying effort. His radio message afterward was unprecedented in its frankness: “Maybe the team just needs a different driver.” Later, speaking candidly to Sky Sports, he admitted bluntly: “I drove terribly…I was completely useless out there.” Such a candid self-assessment, brutally honest and publicly shared, signals deep internal turmoil. Hamilton enters the summer break not merely struggling with a challenging car but grappling with profound doubts about his own ability to compete in Formula 1’s modern ground-effect era.
Meanwhile, Leclerc continues to extract remarkable performance from the Ferrari, consistently challenging for poles and podium finishes. Yet Ferrari’s strategic and operational weaknesses remain stubbornly persistent. Pit-wall mistakes and technical missteps, highlighted vividly by the team’s disqualification from the Chinese GP due to illegal plank wear, undermine the occasional flashes of speed. As Ferrari management stands behind team principal Frédéric Vasseur, it’s clear that much work remains to align Ferrari’s ambitions with its current operational capability. Hamilton’s struggles merely compound Ferrari’s ongoing challenge to turn their potent car into consistent race victories.
Mercedes, on the other hand, face their own new reality. With Hamilton’s departure, George Russell has emerged as a confident and capable leader, scoring a victory in Canada and regularly appearing on the podium. Rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli has displayed potential but remains inconsistent, as highlighted by a heavy crash during practice at Imola. More startlingly, midseason rumors revealed that Mercedes had opened discussions with Red Bull superstar Max Verstappen regarding a potential 2026 move. The talks sent shockwaves through the paddock, threatening Red Bull’s already fragile internal stability. However, Verstappen publicly put speculation to rest, affirming: “Red Bull is my home…I’ll stay through 2026.” His commitment provides a desperately needed anchor for a Red Bull team embroiled in turmoil.
At Red Bull, Verstappen’s loyalty stands in sharp contrast to internal chaos. Longtime team principal Christian Horner’s dramatic midseason exit, reportedly due to internal conflict and misconduct allegations, shocked everyone in Formula 1. Laurent Mekies stepped into the breach, acknowledging the immense scale of the challenge ahead. Compounding the team’s woes, legendary designer Adrian Newey’s departure to Aston Martin left the technical department reeling. The RB21 has proven difficult to drive, unstable, and frequently uncompetitive against McLaren and Ferrari. Red Bull’s second driver saga has added to the sense of disarray: Liam Lawson, promoted after Sergio Pérez’s departure, was abruptly demoted after just two races due to poor performance. Yuki Tsunoda’s subsequent promotion hasn’t solved anything, as the Japanese driver remains without points in his senior-team seat. Lawson’s public bewilderment at his sudden demotion highlights Red Bull’s chaotic internal logic, further emphasizing the need for stability, now tenuously provided only by Verstappen’s personal commitment.
Alpine’s 2025 season has descended into a full-blown crisis. Flavio Briatore’s controversial return to management was billed as a move to restore discipline, but it has instead unleashed chaos. Rookie Jack Doohan was abruptly sacked after just six races, replaced by Franco Colapinto in what appeared more like a panic move than a strategic reset. Colapinto has since failed to deliver any meaningful results, leaving Pierre Gasly to carry the team’s entire 20-point tally into the summer break. Gasly, though outwardly professional, has shown visible signs of frustration. Alpine now teeters on the brink of finishing last in the Constructors’ Championship—an unthinkable outcome for a factory-backed operation. Speculation about further leadership shakeups is mounting, as Briatore’s ruthless methods continue to produce instability rather than performance.
Meanwhile, Aston Martin spent the season’s early months in frustrating anonymity. Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll grappled with an unpredictable AMR25 that delivered results only sporadically. Yet hope emerged in Hungary: a comprehensive update finally yielded performance, Alonso finishing fifth and Stroll seventh. Despite this, Aston Martin’s underlying issue remains consistency. Alonso’s experience and determination remain invaluable, but Stroll’s persistent gap to his veteran teammate keeps pressure mounting internally. Aston’s true potential lies in the future, particularly with Adrian Newey’s involvement on their 2026 project, but immediate progress remains painfully elusive.
One of the season’s most uplifting stories comes from Stake (Sauber), a team in the midst of its transition to full Audi ownership. Their 2025 revival has been remarkable: Nico Hülkenberg finally secured his first-ever Formula 1 podium at Silverstone after nearly 240 career starts, while rookie Gabriel Bortoleto has impressed with consistent pace and maturity beyond his years, capped by a sixth-place finish in Hungary. Thanks to a major midseason upgrade and strong driver performances, Stake now finds itself in legitimate contention to overtake Aston Martin for sixth in the Constructors’ standings, a turnaround few could have imagined just a year ago.
Williams began the season optimistically, buoyed by Alex Albon’s strong opening performances, including a fifth-place finish in Melbourne, a sign of genuine midfield competitiveness. However, that optimism was quickly tempered by reality. Albon suffered three consecutive midseason DNFs, abruptly stalling the team’s momentum. Carlos Sainz, arriving with high hopes from Ferrari, has faced consistent frustration, openly citing “silly problems” and operational errors that Williams simply cannot afford. The team has visibly improved under James Vowles’ leadership, but chronic inconsistency prevents them from capitalizing fully. While Albon’s reputation remains intact, Sainz’s struggles have begun to tarnish perceptions of his capabilities, adding urgency for Williams to address their lingering technical and operational shortcomings.
At Haas, the departure of longtime team principal Guenther Steiner at the close of 2023 brought Ayao Komatsu into the role. Komatsu, well-respected and deeply familiar with the team, has aimed to bring stability to Haas’s historically turbulent operation. Yet the 2025 season has underscored the limitations of their unique preseason strategy. Opting to forego qualifying-focused setups during testing left Haas severely disadvantaged on Saturdays. The VF-25 displays commendable race pace but too often starts from low grid positions. Esteban Ocon has extracted the maximum available from the car, regularly scoring points despite qualifying deficits, while rookie Oliver Bearman has demonstrated genuine speed interspersed with typical rookie errors. Komatsu has candidly admitted the team must revisit their testing philosophy to compete effectively. Importantly, under Komatsu’s guidance, Haas achieved financial independence this year, no longer reliant on owner Gene Haas’s supplemental funding, a significant milestone for the American squad’s long-term stability.
Visa Cash App Racing Bulls have quietly positioned themselves as a highly efficient operation despite ongoing turmoil at their senior Red Bull team. Rookie sensation Isack Hadjar has emerged as one of the brightest prospects of the season, securing impressive points finishes, notably sixth in Monaco. Hadjar’s mature acknowledgment of the dangers posed by rapid promotion to the chaotic Red Bull senior squad illustrates a thoughtful and intelligent young driver aware of the complexities of his situation. Liam Lawson, initially promoted to Red Bull and then demoted after two races, returned to Racing Bulls with evident disappointment but professionalism intact, frequently outperforming senior-team driver Yuki Tsunoda on pure pace. Racing Bulls’ stable and measured management starkly contrasts with the chaos in Red Bull’s senior squad and sets a model for how a junior team should operate.
As the paddock enters the summer shutdown, each team faces unique existential questions. Hamilton’s soul-searching at Ferrari stands out as a psychological drama rarely seen among champions. Verstappen’s public recommitment to Red Bull amid internal chaos underscores personal loyalty and provides desperately needed stability. Mercedes moves forward in a new era, leveraging Russell’s leadership while managing their rookie prodigy. Aston Martin and Williams grapple with consistency, Haas confronts strategic miscalculations under Komatsu’s fresh but challenged leadership, and Racing Bulls quietly nurture future stars despite Red Bull’s internal turbulence. Sauber’s revival is a highlight, offering hope to teams facing adversity, particularly Alpine, who must swiftly address deep-seated issues or face historic embarrassment.
As the second half of the 2025 season looms following the Hungarian Grand Prix, expect McLaren’s dominance to continue, but internal tensions between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris are statistically likely to escalate. With just nine points separating them after Budapest and both drivers in equal machinery, a collision or controversial team-orders moment now feels almost inevitable. Piastri is on pace to surpass 400 points (barring DNFs or team orders favoring Norris) and take the Drivers’ Championship, with Norris projected to finish within 15 points behind, assuming his recent late-race execution continues. Verstappen, despite holding the fragile Red Bull operation together amid ongoing management instability, is expected to remain third in the standings, likely finishing the year around 280 points, capable of occasional wins but unable to mount a full title challenge. In the Constructors’ Championship, McLaren is projected to clinch the title with over 750 points, holding a staggering 350–400 point gap over Ferrari (forecasted around 430), while Mercedes, riding George Russell’s consistency, could narrowly overtake the Scuderia to claim second with a projected 360. Sauber’s upward trajectory, sparked by their Barcelona upgrade and bolstered by Hülkenberg and Bortoleto’s strong form, puts them on course to leapfrog Aston Martin for sixth in the standings, finishing around 90–100 points. Racing Bulls, driven by Isack Hadjar’s exceptional rookie campaign and Liam Lawson’s resilience, are likely to lock in eighth with approximately 75 points, outperforming Haas, who, despite Ocon’s consistency, are projected to land around 60. Meanwhile, Alpine, ravaged by mismanagement and stuck with a rotating second seat, remains the only team yet to show upward movement. Barring a miracle, they are statistically on track to finish dead last with fewer than 30 points, a humiliating collapse for a factory team and the most dramatic fall of the Renault era.
-Rudy Falco
About the author:
When he’s not running the e-commerce engine at CMC Motorsports, Rudy Falco is obsessively breaking down race data, paddock politics, and tire strategy. With over 20 years in digital commerce and a lifelong obsession with motorsports, he brings a sharp, analytical lens to the modern F1 landscape.
Editorial Disclaimer:
The views expressed in this editorial are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CMC Motorsports, any official Formula 1 organization, team, or affiliate. This piece is intended as commentary and analysis, based on available reporting and observed industry trends. All information is accurate to the best of the author’s knowledge at the time of publication.
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